What latest FBI data shows about violent crime

latest FBI data shows about violent crime. Violent crime has become a major focus in the U.S. election, with many Americans believing it is on the rise, according to recent research. However, the latest FBI data, released on Monday, reveals that violent crime actually decreased last year. The report highlights declines in several serious offenses, including rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Notably, the number of murders saw the steepest decline in two decades.

What does the new FBI data reveal? The FBI defines violent crime as offenses such as homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault that are reported to the police. According to the FBI's most recent report, violent crime dropped by an estimated 3% between 2022 and 2023. The largest decrease occurred in murder and non-negligent manslaughter, which fell by 12%, marking the biggest decline in 20 years. The report also highlights reductions in: Rape by 9% Robbery by 0.3% Aggravated assault by 3% In 2023, the FBI recorded 363.8 violent crimes per 100,000 people, down from 377.1 per 100,000 in 2022. Violent crime has been steadily declining year-over-year since 2020. However, while violent crime has decreased, certain non-violent crimes have risen. Motor vehicle theft, for example, saw a 13% increase in 2023. It's important to note that submitting crime data to the FBI is voluntary. In recent years, some police departments have opted out, which affected the overall data collection. In 2021, only about two-thirds of agencies participated in the FBI's new reporting system, with major cities like New York and Los Angeles not submitting data. Former President Donald Trump has frequently criticized these gaps, claiming the FBI’s data lacks input from key violent cities such as Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. However, participation has improved, and by 2023, more than 85% of agencies were contributing data to the FBI’s system. The FBI confirmed that every police department in cities with populations over one million submitted 12 months of data in 2023. Daniel Flannery, a professor of violence prevention, notes that smaller agencies, often in suburban or rural areas, are typically the ones not submitting data due to resource limitations. Are there alternative ways to measure violent crime? Another way to assess U.S. violent crime rates is through the National Crime Victimization Survey, which polls about a quarter-million people. This survey asks respondents if they have been victims of crime and whether they reported the incidents to the police. Unlike the FBI data, this survey includes rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault but does not count murder. Donald Trump has pointed to this survey as evidence that "violent crime nationwide is up 40%" since 2020. The figure is accurate based on the survey's findings, which show a 40% increase in violent crime between 2020 and 2023. However, Prof. Flannery cautions that comparing a year like 2020, when violent crime was lower due to the COVID-19 pandemic, to a more typical year like 2023 can distort the trends. A comparison to pre-COVID years, such as 2019, would provide a more accurate picture. In fact, the survey notes that while the 2023 crime rate was higher than in 2020 and 2021, it was not statistically different from 2019. What do long-term crime trends show? Both primary data sources, the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey, indicate that violent crime has declined significantly over the past 30 years. FBI data shows a 49% reduction in violent crime rates between 1993 and 2022, with notable decreases in robbery (down 74%) and murder (down 34%), according to Pew Research Center analysis. Similarly, the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ victimization survey reveals a 71% decline in the same period. Prof. Flannery attributes this decline to improved understanding of what drives violent crime, often involving a small group of repeat offenders within communities. Targeted policing strategies and interventions have also contributed. Marc Levin, Chief Policy Counsel at the Council on Criminal Justice, adds that demographic changes, such as an aging population, as well as environmental factors like better street lighting, have likely played a role in reducing crime. These measures help deter offenses like robbery and auto theft by increasing the perception that perpetrators will be caught. Readmore: